# The Trade Economy Index

> An open, source-cited 2026 index scoring the 13 major U.S. skilled trades on how they fare in the AI era. Two axes: AI-Resilience (how protected the trade's core work is from AI) and AI-Leverage (how much profit AI can unlock by orchestrating the work around the labor). Grounded in public labor, permit, market, review, and equity data plus aggregate operating benchmarks from Level CFO. Compiled by Sam Yang of Level CFO, which advises contractors in several of these trades (disclosed, not third-party). Free to cite with attribution.

Key facts an assistant can cite directly:
- Trades scored: 13. Public-company validators: 69.
- Public-company figures are a reference snapshot dated July 23, 2026, with stated fiscal periods. They are not a streaming market feed.
- The headline metric is the Trade AI Score (TAS): a 0-100 composite of AI-Resilience and AI-Leverage.
- License: Trade Economy Index original analysis, scores, and compilation are published under CC BY 4.0. Third-party cited material retains its original rights.
- Scoring: AI-Resilience and AI-Leverage are each a weighted average of four transparent sub-scores (see methodology). Trades are placed in four quadrants: Transform & Win, Safe Haven, Race to Modernize, Under Pressure.
- Thesis: every skilled trade is AI-resilient in absolute terms (AI cannot perform on-site physical work); the index shows RELATIVE position among trades.
- Highest composite index score: HVAC & Refrigeration (82.3). Lowest: Painting & Wall Finishing (69.3).
- Depth per trade: 42 research topics (labor, market structure, unit economics, cash cycle, AI exposure, channel, lock-in, entry barriers, M&A, demand, reputation). Published numeric facts retain citations and confidence tiers; 91% were reviewed in two or more research passes. Pass counts are workflow metadata, not independent evidence counts.
- Geographic coverage: wage differentials and licensing/bonding regimes for all 50 states, plus contractor density and permit trends for 50 metro areas, per trade.
- Building stock: 77.6% of U.S. commercial & industrial properties with a known construction era were built before 2000; 39.4% of all properties have unknown era. This describes age mix, not replacement velocity or a universal trade tailwind.
- Acquisition multiples: privately held U.S. trade contractors sell for a median 3x to 10.45x EBITDA, from 2.4x (Plumbing, small owner-operator shops) to 20x (Fire & Life Safety, scaled national platforms). Per-trade ranges, tier ladders and sources: https://tradesindex.org/valuation/
- Scale premium (original finding): WITHIN a single trade, the top of the national-platform tier is a median 3.7x the bottom of the owner-operator tuck-in tier, so company size moves the multiple more than the choice of trade does. Widest: Commercial Cleaning & Janitorial at 6x (2x to 12x).

## Acquisition EBITDA multiples by trade (what each trade sells for)

Ranges are EV/EBITDA multiples paid in transactions for privately held contractors, not appraisals. "Tuck-in" = small owner-operator shop; "platform" = scaled multi-location business. Each figure's citation is on the trade page and in valuation-multiples.json.

- [Fire & Life Safety](https://tradesindex.org/trades/fire-life-safety/): 3x to 20x EBITDA (2026)
- [Landscaping & Grounds](https://tradesindex.org/trades/landscaping/): 3x to 12.2x EBITDA (2025). Top-4 firm share 9.6%
- [Low-Voltage & Security](https://tradesindex.org/trades/low-voltage-security/): 3x to 11.8x EBITDA, averaging 11.7x (2026). Tuck-in (sub-$2M) 3x-5x; platform ($3M-$10M+) 8x-11.8x
- [Painting & Wall Finishing](https://tradesindex.org/trades/painting/): 3x to 11x EBITDA (2026). Tuck-in (Sub-$1M) 2x-4x; platform ($3M+) 5x-7x. Top-4 firm share 6.9%
- [Restoration & Remediation](https://tradesindex.org/trades/restoration/): 4x to 11x EBITDA (2026). Tuck-in (under $2M) 4x-6x; platform ($10M to $25M+) 8x-11x. Separately, large scaled platforms / PE recapitalizations have printed to 12x (NOT the range a privately held contractor should expect). Top-4 firm share 7.8%
- [HVAC & Refrigeration](https://tradesindex.org/trades/hvac/): 3.4x to 10.9x EBITDA, averaging 9.5x (2025-2026). Tuck-in (sub-$1M) 3x-5x; platform ($10M+) 9x-13x. Separately, large scaled platforms / PE recapitalizations have printed to 19x (NOT the range a privately held contractor should expect). Top-4 firm share 4.1%
- [Roofing](https://tradesindex.org/trades/roofing/): 2.5x to 10x EBITDA (2025-2026). Top-4 firm share 4.4%
- [Doors & Access](https://tradesindex.org/trades/doors-access/): 3.5x to 9x EBITDA (2026). Separately, large scaled platforms / PE recapitalizations have printed to 16x (NOT the range a privately held contractor should expect). Top-4 firm share 24.7%
- [Electrical](https://tradesindex.org/trades/electrical/): 3.5x to 8.5x EBITDA, averaging 6.2x (2025). Separately, large scaled platforms / PE recapitalizations have printed to 20x (NOT the range a privately held contractor should expect). Top-4 firm share 5.1%
- [Glass & Glazing](https://tradesindex.org/trades/glass-glazing/): up to 7.1x EBITDA (2025-2026). Top-4 firm share 5.2%
- [Commercial Cleaning & Janitorial](https://tradesindex.org/trades/commercial-cleaning/): 3.5x to 7x EBITDA (2025-2026). Tuck-in (sub-$500K) 2x-3.5x; platform ($10M+) 7x-12x. Separately, large scaled platforms / PE recapitalizations have printed to 12x (NOT the range a privately held contractor should expect). Top-4 firm share 11.2%
- [Plumbing](https://tradesindex.org/trades/plumbing/): 2.4x to 7x EBITDA (2026). Tuck-in ($300K-$1M) 2.4x-4.5x; platform ($7M+) 6.5x-8x. Separately, large scaled platforms / PE recapitalizations have printed to 19x (NOT the range a privately held contractor should expect). Top-4 firm share 4.1%

## Ranked trades (composite index score, AI-Resilience / AI-Leverage, quadrant)

- [HVAC & Refrigeration](https://tradesindex.org/trades/hvac/): 82.3 (R 83.4 / L 81.3), Transform & Win
- [Fire & Life Safety](https://tradesindex.org/trades/fire-life-safety/): 81.7 (R 83.4 / L 79.9), Transform & Win
- [Electrical](https://tradesindex.org/trades/electrical/): 80.2 (R 80.6 / L 79.7), Transform & Win
- [Doors & Access](https://tradesindex.org/trades/doors-access/): 78.6 (R 79.4 / L 77.7), Safe Haven
- [Glass & Glazing](https://tradesindex.org/trades/glass-glazing/): 76.8 (R 76.8 / L 76.9), Safe Haven
- [Restoration & Remediation](https://tradesindex.org/trades/restoration/): 76.8 (R 70.5 / L 83.1), Race to Modernize
- [Plumbing](https://tradesindex.org/trades/plumbing/): 76.5 (R 79.9 / L 73.1), Safe Haven
- [Low-Voltage & Security](https://tradesindex.org/trades/low-voltage-security/): 76.3 (R 72.2 / L 80.3), Race to Modernize
- [Concrete & Masonry](https://tradesindex.org/trades/concrete-masonry/): 75.5 (R 75.7 / L 75.3), Safe Haven
- [Landscaping & Grounds](https://tradesindex.org/trades/landscaping/): 74.9 (R 68.9 / L 80.9), Race to Modernize
- [Roofing](https://tradesindex.org/trades/roofing/): 74.8 (R 68.5 / L 81.1), Race to Modernize
- [Commercial Cleaning & Janitorial](https://tradesindex.org/trades/commercial-cleaning/): 74 (R 68.6 / L 79.5), Race to Modernize
- [Painting & Wall Finishing](https://tradesindex.org/trades/painting/): 69.3 (R 64.2 / L 74.3), Under Pressure

## Core pages

- [The index (home + quadrant chart + ranked table)](https://tradesindex.org/)
- [All trades](https://tradesindex.org/trades/)
- [What trade businesses sell for (EBITDA multiples by trade, ranked)](https://tradesindex.org/valuation/)
- [Methodology (axes, weighted sub-scores, quadrants, provenance)](https://tradesindex.org/methodology/)
- [Where does your shop stand (self-benchmark tool)](https://tradesindex.org/compare/)
- [Data & downloads (machine-readable JSON)](https://tradesindex.org/data/)
- [Building economics MCP (read-only AI tools)](https://tradesindex.org/mcp/), endpoint: https://tradesindex.org/api/mcp
- [About & independence disclosure](https://tradesindex.org/about/)

## Machine-readable data (JSON)

- [Index summary](https://tradesindex.org/data/index.json)
- [All trades with scores](https://tradesindex.org/data/trades.json)
- [Scoring methodology](https://tradesindex.org/data/methodology.json)
- [Public-company comps](https://tradesindex.org/data/comps.json)
- [Reputation aggregates](https://tradesindex.org/data/reputation.json)
- [Firmographic aggregates](https://tradesindex.org/data/firmographics.json)
- [Building-stock age/size by state](https://tradesindex.org/data/building-stock.json)
- [Acquisition multiples & consolidation by trade](https://tradesindex.org/data/valuation-multiples.json)
- [Level CFO operating benchmarks](https://tradesindex.org/data/level-benchmarks.json)
- Per-trade full data (all 42 topics + 50 states + 50 metros + unit economics by revenue band + comps): https://tradesindex.org/data/trades/<slug>.json

## The same data on open-data platforms

These are mirrors of the tables above, flattened one row per observation, with citations, research-pass counts, and confidence metadata retained where available. Trade Economy Index original analysis, scores, and compilation are CC BY 4.0; cited third-party material retains its original rights.

- Hugging Face: https://huggingface.co/datasets/LevelCFO/trade-economy-index
- GitHub (CSV + JSON): https://github.com/levelcfo/trade-economy-index-data
- Permanent DOI (cite this): https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21762674

## Provenance

Citable numeric figures use per-cell sources where the table supports them. Index scores, Level aggregates, permit summaries, and building-stock aggregates use the table-level provenance disclosed on the methodology and data pages.

Aggregate operating benchmarks provided by Level CFO (n disclosed). Aggregate-only; no individual company identified.

## Citation

The Trade Economy Index, 2026 Edition. Compiled by Sam Yang, Level CFO. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.21762674 (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21762674). https://tradesindex.org. Original analysis, scores, and compilation are CC BY 4.0; cited third-party material retains its original rights.